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I’m perplexed as to why Labor underperformed here in 2025 but over performed here in 2022.
@ SpaceFish i think 2022 was already inflated swing so not much further it could swing
@Nimalan,
Wasn’t Labor sandbagging here?
@ SpaceFish
Gilmore certainly was sandbagged but i dont think Libs thought Eden Monaro was winnable in 2025 rather it was a 2028 target.
Libs strategy was to pick up enought seats to force a Labor-Greens-Teal minority government in 2025
You’d think the swing to Labor would have been larger due to the coalition’s policy on WFH and public sector job cuts. This seat has a very high proportion of public servants working from home and making the commute to Canberra when required.
@Bentley,
My thoughts exactly and given a portion of the seat is along the sea that the high Green vote would help Labor out as well.
The Labor vote has solidified over the last two elections in the Snowy Monaro part as well as in Bega Valley LGA where Kristy McBain is an ex-mayor. I’m guessing there’s a sea change demographic that is more electorally favourable to Labor along the South Coast. It’s either that or McBain has a strong personal vote. She was the mayor of Bega Valley during the Black Summer bushfires.
I will say that the majority of the electorate seems to be undergoing demographic changes that are bringing in a more progressive cohort of voters, hence strengthening the Labor vote:
1. Queanbeyan – there is high concentration of public servants who commute to Canberra. White-collar voters like public servants have shifted heavily towards Labor mainly due to the Coalition being perceived as unfriendly towards them, especially when Peter Dutton announced large public service cuts if he was elected. There is also a lot of population growth in the Queanbeyan suburbs and exurbs like Jerrabombera and Googong with young families likely priced out of Canberra and other major cities moving in.
2. Bega Valley/Eurobodalla – two words: sea changers. The NSW South Coast in general has had arguably one of the most seismic shifts politically, going from a traditionally conservative area into a more moderate, even progressive region. Sea changers, especially wealthy retirees are moving down here in the droves for a more peaceful and relaxed lifestyle away from the city. There are also some towns here like Tanja and Brogo where the Greens led on first preferences, so definitely a large cohort of environmentally-conscious voters are here.
3. Maybe a bit more debatable, but I would argue Jindabyne is also undergoing some level of demographic change. There has been a huge shift here from the Coalition to Labor, going from being more 50-50 but Coalition-leaning in 2019 and the 2020 by-election, to around 59% in the past two elections for Labor on the 2PP. This could likely be attributed to new development on the edges of Jindabyne (so likely bringing in younger families and wealthy retirees), and also the growing tendency among alpine/snow towns to vote more progressive (e.g. Aspen and Telluride in Colorado).
Fundamentally though, Kristy McBain is a very popular MP, especially in the Bega Valley, and she’s definitely a big part in the huge margins here. This seat could become more interesting when she retires/resigns, but there do seem to be some factors helping Labor out a fair bit here that should keep it in their column for the foreseeable future.
I think the swings to Labor along the South Coast in 2022 were due to a rejection of the Liberals and endorsement of McBain following the bushfires. McBain was the mayor of Bega Valley at the time.
Like Gilmore, Eden-Monaro has coastal areas with a growing eco-conscious, sea change demographic. The Queanbeyan part and satellite towns of Canberra contain a PS worker demographic and tree change demographic and commuter with easy access to employment and services in Canberra.
This might also explain why the state seats of Monaro, Bega and South Coast all swung hard to Labor in 2023 when their long-term Coalition members that got re-elected in 2019, didn’t run in 2023.